The road to 172.
One country. 343 local races.
See how today’s polls could translate into seats.
Polling-based projection. Riding estimates use a regional swing model and the official 2025 result. They are not riding polls, win probabilities, or election results.
Liberal leads the seat model.
a majority
Every province. Every riding.
Hover or tap a province to explore.
Colour shows its modelled vote-share leader.
Loading Elections Canada boundaries…
Official 2023 representation-order boundaries, simplified for display. A large area is not a large number of seats.
The seat breakdown.
| Province / territory | Vote leader | LPC | CPC | NDP | BQ | GPC | OTH | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newfoundland and Labrador | LPC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Prince Edward Island | LPC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nova Scotia | LPC | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| New Brunswick | LPC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| Quebec | LPC | 50 | 7 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 78 |
| Ontario | LPC | 91 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 122 |
| Manitoba | CPC | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Saskatchewan | CPC | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 |
| Alberta | LPC | 19 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37 |
| British Columbia | LPC | 34 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 |
| Yukon | LPC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Northwest Territories | LPC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nunavut | NDP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
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343 ridings
Show the workings.
Nationally adjusted regional swing · v1
Experimental, uncalibrated model
How polls become riding estimates
We begin with Elections Canada’s official April 28, 2025 candidate vote totals in all 343 ridings. The national polling average uses the same accepted records as our polling desk: latest eligible wave per firm, 30-day fieldwork window, 14-day half-life and capped square-root sample weighting. A minimum of three national firms is required.
For each province, we use current eligible provincial federal-vote breakdowns where available. Otherwise we use its broader polling region: Atlantic Canada or Manitoba/Saskatchewan. We first adjust each regional poll by the difference between the current national average and that firm’s matching national wave, then normalise. This lets new national polling move the whole model while retaining regional patterns. A regional release without a matching national wave is excluded. The adjusted regional share minus its 2025 regional vote share gives each party’s swing. We add that swing to the 2025 share in each riding and province, floor negative values at zero, and rescale to 100%. Territories or provinces without an eligible regional input use national swing, explicitly labelled.
Regional weights use the published unweighted regional question base, not national n. Only the latest wave per firm and geography contributes. The model prefers direct provincial data over broader regional data. All provincial percentages are model estimates; for Atlantic provinces and MB/SK they are not separate provincial polls. Bloc is restricted to Quebec. Other combines PPC and smaller parties; it does not identify a single candidate.
The leading modelled party in each riding receives one projected seat. Ties use alphabetical party-code order; they remain close races. No candidate, incumbency, turnout, tactical-voting or by-election adjustment is applied. “Elected in 2025” is historical and does not claim the person is today’s MP or a future candidate.
Uncertainty & thin regional polling
This is a deterministic, uncalibrated projection. We do not publish win probabilities, confidence intervals, or a predicted election winner. A one-poll regional input, especially a small sample, can swing many seats and should be treated cautiously. “Within 5 points” describes the modelled gap, not a statistically proven toss-up.
Accepted polling updates flow into this page automatically on the next request. Regional inputs expire after 30 days; the page then labels national fallback. If the current national average has fewer than three firms or the polling store is unavailable, the seat model is suppressed. The displayed date is the model calculation date; source fieldwork dates are shown separately. Shared links open the latest projection; downloaded cards preserve the date shown at export.
Original data & boundary sources
- Elections Canada: official 2025 candidate results, Table 12
- Elections Canada: 2023 representation-order boundaries
- Léger: October 9–12, 2026 fieldwork, released October 16; report Q1, page 7 . Regional decided bases: ATL 80, QC 354, ON 530, MB/SK 97, AB 110, BC 138. This initial supplement comes from one firm. Active inputs and expiry are shown in map details; newer eligible stored waves from that firm supersede it.
- Current model, regional inputs and source links (JSON)
- Corrections & feedback
Election results and geographic data are credited to Elections Canada. Boundaries are simplified for display. Elections Canada does not endorse this projection.
How to read the data
- Live
- Unofficial counts arriving now.
- Official preliminary
- Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
- Projection
- Model output, not an election result.
- Simulated
- A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
- Archived
- Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.