CANADA / FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

The public pulse.

Individual polls tell part of the story.
See how the reviewed numbers come together.

AVERAGE AS OFNov 6, 2026Experimental average · v1

01 / POLITYIQ AVERAGEAS OF NOV 6, 2026

The national picture.

15.4 point lead

Estimated share among decided / leaning voters

LiberalMark Carney

47.1%

ConservativePierre Poilievre

31.7%

NDPAvi Lewis

10.2%

Bloc QuébécoisYves-François Blanchet

6.0%

GreenElizabeth May

2.7%

Other incl. PPCMultiple parties & leaders

Combined2.3%

Other combines PPC and other parties so releases with different party groupings can be compared. Values may not add to 100% after display rounding. This combined group has no single leader or party logo.

Portrait & logo sources

Leader identities reviewed October 22, 2026. Portraits are cropped from official party or leader websites; official marks retain their original artwork.

BEHIND THE AVERAGE

Whose polls count?
And how much?

Newer fieldwork carries more weight. Larger total samples receive a capped boost. Each firm contributes its latest eligible release.

Abacus Data43.2%

Liaison Strategies28.9%

Léger27.9%

Contribution to this snapshot’s average. These are model weights, not pollster accuracy ratings.

CANADA / BEYOND THE BALLOT

Confidence & leadership.

Follow the government, the prime minister and the people who want the job.

LATEST SOURCE CHECKOct 25, 11:34 a.m. PDTSee coverage

Government approval

59%

Mark Carney government

Abacus Data · Oct 21, 2026

Original poll

Prime minister approval

64%

Mark Carney

Liaison Strategies · Oct 17, 2026

Original poll

Preferred prime minister

61.3%

Mark Carney

Nanos Research · Oct 16, 2026

Original poll

Latest collected national polls, shown separately by measure. Dates show fieldwork end. Expand a row for every response, the respondent base and original source. Approval, satisfaction, favourability and preferred PM measure different things.

91 collected measurements · page 1 of 8Download these measures

Federal voting intentions · CANADAAbacus DataFederal party supportOct 21, 2026n = 1,500LPC48%CPC32%NDP9%+4 responses

LPC48%

CPC32%

NDP9%

BQ6%

GPC3%

OTH1%

PPC1%

Fieldwork
Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026Released
Oct 25, 2026Total survey
n = 1,500Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Federal party choice if an election were held now (summary)

Respondent base: Committed voters; undecided removed

Method: Online · blended double-opt-in partner panels

Source checked: Vote intention interactive: Overall table; article methodology. Released October 25; fieldwork ends October 21.

Publisher release and interactive tables checked. Total survey n=1,500; separate unweighted question base not published. Weighted to census population benchmarks. Comparable probability-sample margin of error is not a design-based margin for this online panel.

Original release Source checked

Government approval · CANADAAbacus DataMark Carney governmentOct 21, 2026n = 1,500Approve59%Disapprove26%Neither approve nor disapprove15%

Approve59%

Disapprove26%

Neither approve nor disapprove15%

Fieldwork
Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026Released
Oct 25, 2026Total survey
n = 1,500Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Overall approval of the federal government led by Mark Carney (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adults; overall government job approval

Method: Online · blended double-opt-in partner panels

Source checked: Government Approval: Overall table. Published aggregate approve=59; rounded strongly/somewhat components total 58, not substituted for the aggregate.

Original release Source checked

Leader favourability · CANADAAbacus DataMark CarneyOct 21, 2026n = 1,500Positive56%Negative27%Neutral15%+1 responses

Positive56%

Negative27%

Neutral15%

Do not know enough2%

Fieldwork
Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026Released
Oct 25, 2026Total survey
n = 1,500Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Positive or negative impression of Mark Carney (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adults; personal impression

Method: Online · blended double-opt-in partner panels

Source checked: Leader Impressions interactive: Overall Comparison card for Mark Carney.

Original release Source checked

Leader favourability · CANADAAbacus DataPierre PoilievreOct 21, 2026n = 1,500Negative45%Positive37%Neutral14%+1 responses

Negative45%

Positive37%

Neutral14%

Do not know enough4%

Fieldwork
Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026Released
Oct 25, 2026Total survey
n = 1,500Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Positive or negative impression of Pierre Poilievre (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adults; personal impression

Method: Online · blended double-opt-in partner panels

Source checked: Leader Impressions interactive: Overall Comparison card for Pierre Poilievre.

Original release Source checked

Leader favourability · CANADAAbacus DataAvi LewisOct 21, 2026n = 1,500Neutral32%Negative27%Do not know enough24%+1 responses

Neutral32%

Negative27%

Do not know enough24%

Positive17%

Fieldwork
Oct 16, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026Released
Oct 25, 2026Total survey
n = 1,500Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Positive or negative impression of Avi Lewis (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adults; personal impression

Method: Online · blended double-opt-in partner panels

Source checked: Leader Impressions interactive: Overall Comparison card for Avi Lewis.

Original release Source checked

Federal voting intentions · CANADALiaison StrategiesFederal party supportOct 17, 2026n = 1,000LPC45%CPC30%NDP14%+3 responses

LPC45%

CPC30%

NDP14%

BQ6%

OTH3%

GPC2%

Fieldwork
Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026Released
Oct 19, 2026Total survey
n = 1,000Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Federal party choice if an election were held now (summary)

Respondent base: Decided and leaning voters

Method: IVR · landline and mobile

Source checked: National figures and fieldwork checked against the publisher's release. Decided sample size not specified in the release.

Two-week rolling tracker; consecutive releases share one week. PPC 2%; other parties 1%.

Original release Source checked

Prime minister approval · CANADALiaison StrategiesMark CarneyOct 17, 2026n = 1,000Approve64%Disapprove28%Unsure8%

Approve64%

Disapprove28%

Unsure8%

Fieldwork
Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026Released
Oct 19, 2026Total survey
n = 1,000Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Approval of the prime minister’s performance (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adult respondents; source does not specify a separate question base

Method: IVR · landline and mobile

Source checked: October 19 release: national Carney approval and federal leader favourability paragraphs; methodology paragraph.

Two-week rolling release. Consecutive weekly releases overlap by one week.

Original release Source checked

Leader favourability · CANADALiaison StrategiesPierre PoilievreOct 17, 2026n = 1,000Unfavourable53%Favourable34%

Unfavourable53%

Favourable34%

Fieldwork
Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026Released
Oct 19, 2026Total survey
n = 1,000Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Personal favourability of Pierre Poilievre (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adult respondents; source does not specify a separate question base

Method: IVR · landline and mobile

Source checked: October 19 release: national Carney approval and federal leader favourability paragraphs; methodology paragraph.

Only explicitly published numeric categories included; missing responses are not inferred.

Original release Source checked

Leader favourability · CANADALiaison StrategiesAvi LewisOct 17, 2026n = 1,000Favourable33%Unsure29%Unfavourable28%+1 responses

Favourable33%

Unsure29%

Unfavourable28%

Unfamiliar10%

Fieldwork
Oct 4, 2026 – Oct 17, 2026Released
Oct 19, 2026Total survey
n = 1,000Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Personal favourability of Avi Lewis (summary)

Respondent base: Canadian adult respondents; source does not specify a separate question base

Method: IVR · landline and mobile

Source checked: October 19 release: national Carney approval and federal leader favourability paragraphs; methodology paragraph.

Unsure and unfamiliar are separately published categories.

Original release Source checked

Preferred prime minister · CANADANanos ResearchFederal leadership contestOct 16, 2026n = 1,016Mark Carney61.3%Pierre Poilievre21%Unsure8.7%+4 responses

Mark Carney61.3%

Pierre Poilievre21%

Unsure8.7%

Avi Lewis3.8%

Yves-François Blanchet1.9%

Maxime Bernier1.7%

Elizabeth May1.6%

Fieldwork
Start not published – Oct 16, 2026Released
Oct 20, 2026Total survey
n = 1,016Question / regional base
n = 1,016

Question summary: First choice among federal party leaders for prime minister (summary)

Respondent base: All Canadian adults interviewed; first-ranked preferred prime minister

Method: RDD live telephone; four-week rolling tracking

Source checked: Report pages 9–10: first-ranked preferred PM; page 21 technical note; article release date.

Report specifies a four-week period ending October 16, without an explicit start date. Generic article copy says 1,000; report-specific n=1,016 retained. Page 6 contains stale leadership-quality copy; those measures are withheld. Unknown shown as 8.7% in the chart rather than rounded narrative 9%.

Original release Full report Source checked

Federal voting intentions · CANADANanos ResearchFederal party supportOct 16, 2026n = 1,016LPC50.6%CPC28.3%NDP11.5%+3 responses

LPC50.6%

CPC28.3%

NDP11.5%

BQ6.2%

GPC2.2%

PPC1.2%

Fieldwork
Start not published – Oct 16, 2026Released
Oct 20, 2026Total survey
n = 1,016Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: First-ranked federal party voting preference (summary)

Respondent base: First-ranked federal ballot preferences; separate unweighted ballot base not supplied in the reviewed public report.

Method: RDD dual-frame telephone; four-week rolling tracker

Source checked: Report cover release/end dates; page 6 ballot summary; pages 19 and 21 methodology and technical note.

Fieldwork start unknown: report says four-week period ending October 16 but gives no explicit start date. End-only record excluded from headline average. Report-specific n=1,016 takes precedence over generic article boilerplate describing 1,000 interviews. Successive rolling waves overlap. No unpublished other-party percentage added.

Original release Full report Source checked

Federal voting intentions · CANADAAbacus DataFederal party supportOct 13, 2026n = 3,197LPC46%CPC34%NDP9%+3 responses

LPC46%

CPC34%

NDP9%

BQ7%

GPC3%

OTH1%

Fieldwork
Oct 2, 2026 – Oct 13, 2026Released
Oct 14, 2026Total survey
n = 3,197Question / regional base
n = Not supplied

Question summary: Federal party choice if an election were held now (summary)

Respondent base: Committed voters; undecided removed

Method: Online · partner panels

Source checked: National figures, total sample and fieldwork checked against the publisher's overall table. Decided sample size not supplied.

Only the latest release from this firm enters the average. PPC 1%; other parties round to 0% in the published table.

Original release Source checked

Collection coverage 12 / 34 firms successfully checked in latest recorded attempts ↓

The collector researches original releases on a schedule. The list includes every firm in our historical registry; a listed firm is not proof of a working source. 2 conflicting records held for review. This collection is growing and does not claim every Canadian poll has been captured.

Polling firm	Latest attempt	Source status	Coverage note
Abacus Data	Oct 25, 11:34 a.m. PDT	Checked	October 25 release reviewed in original publisher page and interactive Overall, Subgroups and Methodology tabs: October 16–21, n=1,500. Added national vote, government approval and three leader impressions. Regional vote percentages are visible but separate unweighted regional question bases are not published in the reviewed tables; held out of model. No PM job approval question substituted from personal impressions.
Angus Reid Group	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Angus Reid Institute	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read federal index and linked latest 'Trump Bump' release. No newer qualifying wave found. Prior vote-base/date holds remain unresolved.
Campaign Research (Ontario PC internal)	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official insights index reviewed; visible federal reports predate the two-year window. Discovered official domain is not in the approved writer registry; no source-code change made.
Canada Pulse Insights	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read insights index and linked Oct18 economic-changes article. Latest Toronto/BC material excluded; economic-plan preference not substituted for general approval. No new qualifying federal wave found.
Cardinal Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Unavailable	Homepage returned HTTP 502. No data published.
Deltapoll	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
EKOS	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Unavailable	Original index returned406. Release-level coverage unavailable; accepted data retained.
Empirical Intelligence	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Unavailable	Official domain was not accessible through the research reader. No data published.
Environics Institute	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Focaldata	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Forum Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Unavailable	Official polling index returned HTTP 502. No data published.
Innovative Research	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read homepage/latest-research list: Oct20 BC provincial and Oct16 Alberta referendum. No newer qualifying federal wave found in index review. Prior August fieldwork conflict unresolved.
Ipsos	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read politics index, Dec16 2025 release and linked tables (pages2–3 visually checked). Backfilled seven vote and three regional government-approval records with explicit unweighted bases. Suppressed/dash values omitted. Newly discovered Oct23 release is BC provincial and excluded.
JL Partners	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Kolosowski Strategies	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Liaison Strategies	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read press index and latest Oct19 federal article. No newer eligible wave listed. Latest table read failed at storage.ghost.io redirect, so regional/question bases remain unverified; no regional figures inferred.
Léger	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read homepage and linked Oct16 federal release, matching saved Oct9–12 national/regional wave. Newer listed releases concern BC/Quebec provincial politics. No newer qualifying federal wave discovered.
MQO Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Mainstreet Research	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read original polling index: latest municipal/BC provincial/Alberta referendum items excluded. No new eligible federal release found. Index review only; subscriber reports not accessed. Prior Oct5 Ontario federal date/base hold retained.
Nanos Research	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read latest-research list; latest federal release remains Oct20, already stored with unknown fieldwork start. Newer Toronto municipal items excluded. No newer eligible federal wave found.
Narrative Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Oracle Poll	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Pallas Data	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read official polls index: latest Mississauga/Toronto/BC/Quebec releases municipal or provincial. No new federal wave identified in index review. Existing May numeric/method-date ambiguity retained.
Pollara	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read latest-insights listing: Oct23 BC provincial, Oct20 Toronto and Oct17 Alberta referendum excluded. No newer general federal poll identified in index review. Prior historical date ambiguity retained.
Probe Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Relay Strategies	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Unavailable	Publisher index returned HTTP 429; transient rate limit. Existing data retained.
Research Co.	Oct 23, 7:18 p.m. PDT	Checked	Read homepage: latest BC provincial/hunting/Alberta items excluded. No new qualifying federal wave identified in index review. No issue-specific approval substituted for general approval.
Rubicon Strategy	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Segma Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Spadina Strategies	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Spark Insights / Advocacy	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.
Synopsis Research	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Registry source remains unmapped. Publisher-domain discovery search did not verify an original release; no figures ingested. This URL identifies the registry, not a primary poll source.
YouGov	Oct 22, 9:40 p.m. PDT	Needs review	Official homepage reviewed. No qualifying recent federal release verified in this pass; further report-index/history review remains pending.

Checks are research attempts, not guarantees of completeness. Inaccessible or unclear reports remain pending. Existing accepted figures survive failures. Duplicate releases do not add extra weight; conflicting revisions are held. The headline vote average recalculates from eligible collected records. Approval and leadership measures remain individual polls until a comparable, validated model is available.

Source data & status JSON

CANADA / TWO YEARS OF FEDERAL POLLING

The polls.
The full context.

October 22, 2024 – October 22, 2026. Search the archive, compare firms and inspect the source behind each record.

547national poll records31 firms across all geographies

National ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Coverage audit ↘

Search polling firm or geography

Polling firmGeographyFromThroughRows

Canada · national

547 matching records · 23 firms

Dots are individual releases; lines are an experimental descriptive trend. No confidence bands or seat projections are implied. Reference-date records appear as dots but do not enter the trend. Values above 60% remain in the table. Select a dot for its source and metadata. Flagged records remain in the ledger but are excluded from chart dots and lines.

The poll ledger.

Download matching CSV

Percentages as published or transcribed. A dash means not separately reported. The darkest cell marks the highest listed party support, not a winner call. Dates labelled “reference” may be survey midpoints. Open a firm name for full metadata.

Polling firm · date · n	Source check	LPC	CPC	NDP	BQ	GPC	PPC	OTH	Numerical lead
Liaison Strategies2026-10-17 · n = 1,000Canada · national	Primary checkedIVR · landline and mobile	45	30	14	6	2	2	1	LPC +15
Nanos Research2026-10-16 · n = 1,016Canada · national	Primary checkedTelephone · four-week rolling tracker	50.6	28.3	11.5	6.2	2.2	1.2	—	LPC +22.3
Abacus Data2026-10-13 · n = 3,197Canada · national	Primary checkedOnline · partner panels	46	34	9	7	3	1	0	LPC +12
Léger2026-10-12 · n = 1,525Canada · national	Primary checkedOnline · LEO panel	48	33	8	6	3	—	2	LPC +15
Liaison Strategies2026-10-10 · n = 1,263Canada · national	RegistryIVR	45	29	15	6	2	2	1	LPC +16
Nanos Research2026-10-09 · n = 1,034Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	48.8	29.5	11.1	6.4	2.1	1.6	—	LPC +19.3
Liaison Strategies2026-10-03 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	46	28	15	6	2	2	1	LPC +18
Nanos Research2026-10-02 · n = 1,020Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	49.1	28.2	10.9	6.3	3.4	1.6	—	LPC +20.9
EKOS2026-10-02 · n = 2,020Canada · national	Primary checkedAs described in the original EKOS report	47.2	26.4	15.3	4.6	3.2	1.8	1.4	LPC +20.8
Liaison Strategies2026-09-26 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	46	29	15	6	2	2	1	LPC +17
Nanos Research2026-09-25 · n = 1,022Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	49.9	27.9	11	5.6	3.5	1.4	—	LPC +22
Abacus Data2026-09-23 · n = 2,774Canada · national	RegistryOnline	46	34	9	7	2	1	1	LPC +12
Liaison Strategies2026-09-19 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	45	31	15	6	2	1	1	LPC +14
Nanos Research2026-09-18 · n = 1,026Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	48.1	31	11.2	4.8	3.3	1	—	LPC +17.1
Liaison Strategies2026-09-12 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	44	32	14	6	2	2	1	LPC +12
Nanos Research2026-09-11 · n = 1,014Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	48.3	30.9	10.9	4.9	3.2	1.4	—	LPC +17.4
Abacus Data2026-09-09 · n = 1,479Canada · national	RegistryOnline	47	33	8	7	3	1	1	LPC +14
Léger2026-09-07 · n = 1,538Canada · national	RegistryOnline	49	33	6	7	3	—	2	LPC +16
Angus Reid Institute2026-09-07 · n = 1,811Canada · national	RegistryOnline	46	32	12	5	2	—	2	LPC +14
Liaison Strategies2026-09-05 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	45	31	13	6	2	2	1	LPC +14
Nanos Research2026-09-04 · n = 1,020Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	47.3	31.3	10.8	5	3.4	1.6	—	LPC +16
Spark Insights / Advocacy2026-09-02 · n = 6,535Canada · national · release date	Primary checkedOnline	49	29	9	—	—	—	—	LPC +20
Liaison Strategies2026-08-29 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	46	29	13	6	3	2	1	LPC +17
Nanos Research2026-08-28 · n = 1,017Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	43.7	32.6	12	6	3.9	1.4	—	LPC +11.1
Ipsos2026-08-27 · n = 1,001Canada · national	RegistryOnline	44	33	10	8	2	2	1	LPC +11
Abacus Data2026-08-26 · n = 2,022Canada · national	RegistryOnline	45	35	9	7	2	1	1	LPC +10
Innovative Research2026-08-25 · n = 1,345Canada · national · reference date	RegistryMethod not supplied	41	36	10	6	4	—	—	LPC +5
Liaison Strategies2026-08-22 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	43	32	13	6	3	2	1	LPC +11
Nanos Research2026-08-21 · n = 1,022Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	44.1	30	12.9	6.6	4	2	—	LPC +14.1
Liaison Strategies2026-08-15 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	43	32	13	6	3	2	1	LPC +11
Nanos Research2026-08-14 · n = 1,031Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	45.7	28.5	13.7	6.2	4	1.5	—	LPC +17.2
Abacus Data2026-08-12 · n = 1,499Canada · national	RegistryOnline	42	35	10	8	4	2	0	LPC +7
Liaison Strategies2026-08-08 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	44	31	13	6	3	2	1	LPC +13
Research Co.2026-08-07 · n = 1,001Canada · national	RegistryOnline	47	27	10	6	5	4	1	LPC +20
Nanos Research2026-08-07 · n = 1,038Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	45.6	29.1	12.9	6.8	4	1.3	—	LPC +16.5
EKOS2026-08-04 · n = 3,195Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	44.7	27.1	17	4.4	3.5	2.2	1	LPC +17.6
Léger2026-08-03 · n = 1,514Canada · national	RegistryOnline	46	34	8	6	4	—	2	LPC +12
Spark Insights / Advocacy2026-08-02 · n = 2,439Canada · national	Primary checkedNot supplied in this release	48	29	9	6	—	—	8	LPC +19
Liaison Strategies2026-08-01 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	43	34	12	6	2	2	1	LPC +9
Nanos Research2026-07-31 · n = 1,037Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	47.1	27.9	12.7	6.1	3.8	1.9	—	LPC +19.2
Abacus Data2026-07-29 · n = 1,910Canada · national	RegistryOnline	44	38	9	6	3	1	0	LPC +6
Angus Reid Institute2026-07-27 · n = 1,769Canada · national	RegistryOnline	40	36	13	6	3	1	2	LPC +4
Liaison Strategies2026-07-25 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	44	35	11	5	2	1	2	LPC +9
Nanos Research2026-07-24 · n = 1,034Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	44.7	29.5	12.7	7.3	4.5	1.1	—	LPC +15.2
Liaison Strategies2026-07-18 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	43	35	10	5	1	1	0	LPC +8
Nanos Research2026-07-17 · n = 1,022Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	42.7	31.3	13.6	7.2	4.3	0.8	—	LPC +11.4
Abacus Data2026-07-16 · n = 4,205Canada · national	RegistryOnline	43	37	9	7	3	1	0	LPC +6
Liaison Strategies2026-07-12 · n = 1,526Canada · national · reference date	RegistryMethod not supplied	43	35	12	6	2	—	—	LPC +8
Liaison Strategies2026-07-11 · n = 1,526Canada · national	RegistryIVR	41	35	14	6	2	1	1	LPC +6
Nanos Research2026-07-10 · n = 1,018Canada · national	RegistryTelephone	43	31	15.1	6.2	3.7	1	—	LPC +12

Every polling firm in this archive 31 firms ↓

Firm names are reconciled across registries. A firm appears here if a qualifying federal voting-intention record was found in the two-year window. Counts include regional breakdowns from the same survey; they are not all independent polls.

Polling firm	National	Regional	Riding	First record	Last record
Abacus Data	59	339	0	2024-10-22	2026-10-13
Angus Reid Institute	23	126	0	2024-10-25	2026-09-07
Campaign Research (Ontario PC internal)	0	1	0	2025-03-26	2025-03-26
Cardinal Research	1	7	49	2024-11-15	2025-04-23
Deltapoll	1	0	0	2025-04-09	2025-04-09
EKOS	39	168	0	2024-10-26	2026-10-02
Empirical Intelligence	1	0	0	2025-04-07	2025-04-07
Focaldata	1	0	0	2025-04-23	2025-04-23
Forum Research	1	0	0	2025-04-27	2025-04-27
Innovative Research	26	102	0	2024-12-15	2026-08-25
Ipsos	16	72	0	2024-12-08	2026-08-27
JL Partners	1	0	0	2025-04-16	2025-04-16
Kolosowski Strategies	3	0	0	2025-04-04	2025-11-18
Liaison Strategies	107	578	7	2025-03-12	2026-10-17
Léger	34	214	0	2024-11-02	2026-10-12
MQO Research	5	26	0	2025-03-27	2025-04-26
Mainstreet Research	53	54	2	2024-11-24	2026-10-01
Nanos Research	132	148	0	2024-10-25	2026-10-16
Narrative Research	0	3	0	2025-04-13	2026-03-09
Oracle Poll	0	0	5	2025-02-16	2025-04-24
Pallas Data	14	78	1	2025-01-06	2026-07-18
Pollara	7	36	0	2025-02-19	2026-02-24
Probe Research	0	6	0	2024-12-10	2026-03-13
Relay Strategies	4	0	0	2024-12-06	2025-01-08
Research Co.	11	60	2	2025-01-04	2026-08-07
Rubicon Strategy	0	1	0	2025-04-10	2025-04-10
Segma Research	0	0	1	2026-08	2026-08
Spadina Strategies	0	0	5	2025-04-11	2025-04-26
Spark Insights / Advocacy	6	24	0	2025-05-28	2026-09-02
Synopsis Research	0	4	0	2025-04-11	2026-08-25
YouGov	2	0	0	2025-04-22	2025-04-25

Coverage, sources & trend method Open the full audit trail ↗

Reconciled public-registry inventory. All firms found in the listed sources are retained; unpublished, unindexed or inaccessible releases cannot be ruled out. This snapshot contains 547 national, 2,047 regional and 72 riding records. The archive is manually collected, not a live poll-discovery feed. Read the October 22 data audit .

The collection reconciles the 2025 and next-election national and regional tables, their constituency archives, current and historical federal registries, and additional original publisher releases. All firms found in those source tables are retained regardless of size or rating. Registry transcription is not independent verification of every original release. 19 records have a direct primary-source check recorded.

wiki45 source archive (opens in a new tab) · 314 qualifying input rows before reconciliation
wiki46 source archive (opens in a new tab) · 259 qualifying input rows before reconciliation
riding45 source archive (opens in a new tab) · 61 qualifying input rows before reconciliation
riding46 source archive (opens in a new tab) · 11 qualifying input rows before reconciliation
338 source archive (opens in a new tab) · 1,185 qualifying input rows before reconciliation
338past source archive (opens in a new tab) · 1,313 qualifying input rows before reconciliation

Wikipedia compilation attribution: contributors to the linked pages, retrieved October 22, 2026; CC BY-SA 4.0 (opens in a new tab). Factual registry values have been normalized and reconciled; third-party ratings, projections and chart artwork are not imported.

Date and sample checks: fieldwork-end dates take precedence where available; reference dates are explicitly labelled. Some regional entries list the whole survey’s n because a regional base is not supplied. Unknown n values stay unknown. Rolling releases may overlap; tables retain releases while trend lines use at most one release per firm.

Trend method: a trailing 30-day window, latest eligible release per firm, sample weight √min(n, 2,000), 14-day weight half-life, sampled weekly. When fieldwork ends on the same day, primary-reviewed records take precedence; within the same review status, the larger stated sample is selected. At least three firms with a reported value are needed for a party line. Reference-date, release-date, month-only, missing-sample, flagged and riding records are excluded from lines. The chart is descriptive and has no calibrated uncertainty interval.

Remaining review: 19 cross-registry discrepancies were flagged during reconciliation; 29 same-firm/date/geography groups also await review. Unresolved records stay in the ledger but are excluded from chart dots and trend lines; reviewed counterparts remain eligible. Exact duplicates and matching midpoint/end-date entries were merged; different samples and conflicting releases may remain separate. The displayed ledger retains provenance and review notes. Missing-party values are not inferred from remainders, and historical leader names are not retroactively changed.

Seat projections, majority probabilities and coloured riding forecasts require a separately validated model; they are not calculated from the screenshots or presented as poll data here.

03 / THE METHOD

No mystery
in the maths.

Method polityiq-federal-v1
Dataset scheduled-polling-v1

How the average is calculated +

We use reviewed Canadian national federal voting-intention polls released by the snapshot date, with fieldwork ending in the previous 30 days. The most recent fieldwork from each firm is retained; older releases from that firm are excluded to limit overlapping trackers and repeated influence.

Each poll receives this raw weight:

√min(total sample, 2,000) × 2^(−age / 14)

Age is the number of days between the end of fieldwork and the snapshot date. A poll’s weight halves every 14 days. We divide by the combined weight to obtain the contributions shown above, then take each party’s weighted mean. At least three eligible firms are required.

These are initial design choices, not parameters fitted to past election accuracy. The model does not yet apply pollster ratings or house-effect corrections.

Sample sizes, rounding & uncertainty +

The sample weight uses total respondents consistently across firms because a decided-voter base is not available for every release. A total sample is not an effective sample size for voting intentions. Published decided bases are shown where available.

Individual releases retain their published percentages. For the calculation, six comparable party groups are rescaled to sum to 100 to handle rounding. A national Bloc share describes its share across Canada, not its support within Quebec.

Online panels, telephone surveys and differences in question wording can produce different results. Polls can share systematic errors. This first version has no calibrated confidence interval; displayed decimals do not imply that level of accuracy.

What happens after a new poll? +

We check the original release, field dates, total and decided bases, geography, voting-intention question and party categories. A reviewed record is added to the versioned dataset, the average is recalculated, and this page and its data downloads update from stored records without a new deployment.

A scheduled research task checks original publishers and submits structured records. Validation checks dates, geography, response categories and duplicates. Conflicting waves are held for review while accepted data is retained. Consult collection coverage for actual source checks; this is not a guarantee of exhaustive discovery.

From vote intentions to riding forecasts +

A seat model needs regional polling, past riding results, current boundaries and evidence for local candidate effects. National support alone is insufficient: the same vote share can produce very different seat totals depending on where voters live.

The next modelling stage must account for shared national and regional polling errors, simulate many possible elections and test past forecasts using only information available at the time. Riding probabilities and seat ranges will need that validation before publication.

Official Elections Canada riding results (opens in a new tab)

Data labelsLive Official preliminary Projection Simulated Archived

How to read the data

Live: Unofficial counts arriving now.
Official preliminary: Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
Projection: Model output, not an election result.
Simulated: A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
Archived: Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.

Methodology

The public pulse.

The national picture.

Whose polls count?And how much?

Confidence & leadership.

Mark Carney government

Mark Carney

Mark Carney

The polls.The full context.

Canada · national

The poll ledger.

No mysteryin the maths.

Whose polls count?
And how much?

The polls.
The full context.

No mystery
in the maths.