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CANADA / WHAT CHANGED

Since the
last update.

New evidence. A shifting map.
Follow the changes behind the headline numbers.

LATEST SAVED MODELOct 25, 2026, 11:34 a.m. PDT
COMPARED WITHOct 23, 2026, 1:20 p.m. PDT
Inspect snapshots
LARGEST NET SEAT MOVEMENT+9

Liberal · projected seats

RIDING LEAD CHANGES9

Modelled leaders changed between saved snapshots

NEW MODEL INPUTS1

New national or regional input waves in this comparison

01 / THE NATIONAL MOVEMENT

The numbers that moved.

Saved model snapshots, not election results.
A new check does not always change the model.

Latest saved model, calculated Oct 25, 2026. Changes compare the two snapshot times above. Vote movement is measured in percentage points.
PartySeatsSeat changeNational voteVote change
Liberal231+947.1%+0.8 pp
Conservative81−631.7%−0.7 pp
NDP10−110.2%−0.1 pp
Bloc Québécois20−16.0%−0.4 pp
Green1−12.7%0.0 pp
Other incl. PPC002.3%+0.3 pp

The model can move because a poll was added, an older wave expired, or recency weights changed. Approval and leadership questions are stored separately and do not drive the seat model. National and regional inputs from the same survey are listed separately.

1 new input wave in this model comparison
02 / WHERE THE MAP CHANGED

Local races. New leaders.

A change in the modelled lead.
No election has been called here.

Windsor West

ON · riding 35119
CPCLPC
0.2 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.8 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points

Montmorency—Charlevoix

QC · riding 24051
BQLPC
0.2 pt modelled leadPreviously 1.1 pt BQ leadWithin 5 points

Richmond Hill South

ON · riding 35089
CPCLPC
0.4 pt modelled leadPreviously 1.1 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points

Saanich—Gulf Islands

BC · riding 59029
GPCLPC
0.4 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.3 pt GPC leadWithin 5 points

Calgary Midnapore

AB · riding 48010
CPCLPC
0.6 pt modelled leadPreviously 1.0 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

BC · riding 59010
NDPLPC
0.8 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.1 pt NDP leadWithin 5 points

Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte

ON · riding 35005
CPCLPC
0.9 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.6 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points

Elgin—St. Thomas—London South

ON · riding 35027
CPCLPC
1.2 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.3 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points

Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt

ON · riding 35104
CPCLPC
1.5 pt modelled leadPreviously 0.0 pt CPC leadWithin 5 points
Explore all 343 ridings
03 / THE POLLING NOTEBOOK

Recently added to the archive.

Collection time and publication date are separate.
Historical backfills may appear here.

ADDED Oct 25, 2026, 11:34 a.m. PDT

Abacus Data

5 saved measures

Published Oct 25, 2026 · Fieldwork Oct 16, 2026 to Oct 21, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Government approval · Leader favourability

CA · total survey n = 1,500. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 7:18 p.m. PDT

Ipsos

13 saved measures

Published Dec 16, 2025 · Fieldwork Dec 8, 2025 to Dec 15, 2025

Federal voting intentions · Government approval

CA / BC / AB / MB/SK / ON / QC / ATL · total survey n = 1,502. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 6:21 p.m. PDT

Liaison Strategies

4 saved measures

Published Aug 10, 2026 · Fieldwork Jul 26, 2026 to Aug 8, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Prime minister approval · Leader favourability

CA · total survey n = 1,526. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 6:21 p.m. PDT

Liaison Strategies

4 saved measures

Published Aug 3, 2026 · Fieldwork Jul 19, 2026 to Aug 1, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Prime minister approval · Leader favourability

CA · total survey n = 1,526. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 5:22 p.m. PDT

Abacus Data

10 saved measures

Published Aug 16, 2026 · Fieldwork Aug 7, 2026 to Aug 12, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Government approval · Leader favourability

CA / BC / AB / MB/SK / ON / QC / ATL · total survey n = 1,499. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 1:20 p.m. PDT

Léger

18 saved measures

Published Oct 16, 2026 · Fieldwork Oct 9, 2026 to Oct 12, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Government satisfaction · Prime minister approval

ATL / QC / ON / MB/SK / AB / BC · total survey n = 1,525. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 12:14 p.m. PDT

Liaison Strategies

4 saved measures

Published Sep 7, 2026 · Fieldwork Aug 23, 2026 to Sep 5, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Prime minister approval · Leader favourability

CA · total survey n = 1,526. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 12:14 p.m. PDT

Liaison Strategies

4 saved measures

Published Aug 31, 2026 · Fieldwork Aug 16, 2026 to Aug 29, 2026

Federal voting intentions · Prime minister approval · Leader favourability

CA · total survey n = 1,526. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures
ADDED Oct 23, 2026, 10:16 a.m. PDT

Liaison Strategies

4 saved measures

Published Sep 28, 2026 · Fieldwork Sep 13, 2026 to Sep 26, 2026

Leader favourability · Federal voting intentions · Prime minister approval

CA · total survey n = 1,526. Regional bases are listed in the underlying records.

Original release (opens in a new tab)View recorded measures

One survey can supply several measures and regional breakdowns. These cards group additions by polling firm and fieldwork/release dates; counts are measurements, not independent polls. Appearing here does not establish eligibility for the headline average.

04 / KEEPING THE RECORD STRAIGHT

Dates matter.

Newest stored federal-vote fieldwork end
Oct 21, 2026
Latest source-check attempt
Oct 25, 2026, 11:34 a.m. PDT
Held record conflicts
2

A model snapshot is saved automatically after a successful polling update when the model changes. Duplicate checks without model changes do not create new comparisons. The latest 90 distinct snapshots are retained. Earlier model movements have not been reconstructed.

A check time is not the date of a new poll. Missing or conflicting figures stay out of the model. The experimental projection uses the current national average, eligible regional breakdowns and an official 2025 riding baseline.

Snapshot comparisons use the same model version and election baseline. A method change starts a fresh comparable sequence. Saved snapshots retain their own calculation and storage dates.

22 polling firms have a review or access limitation in their latest recorded attempt

See the polling desk for each source’s detailed coverage note. These statuses describe the latest recorded attempt, not a guarantee of current availability.

Projection method Source coverage Report an error
Data labelsLiveOfficial preliminaryProjectionSimulatedArchived
How to read the data
Live
Unofficial counts arriving now.
Official preliminary
Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
Projection
Model output, not an election result.
Simulated
A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
Archived
Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.
Methodology

PolityIQ is an independent election desk for results, forecasts and maps.

© 2026 PolityIQ. Independent election coverage. Canada, United States, Brazil, India and 51 European and Eurasian countries. Winner labels follow source declarations; projections and rehearsal are labelled separately.