GEORGIAU.S. SENATE
DEMOCRAT · INCUMBENTThomas Jonathan "Jon" Ossoff
REPUBLICANMichael Allen "Mike" Collins Jr.GEORGIA · SENATESee the Georgia Senate race
THE MIDTERM ATLAS / NOVEMBER 03, 2026
United States.
2026 midterms.
A country of close contests. Compare the people, places and possible paths to control of Congress.
United StatesCURRENT NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
Donald Trump
President
Leadership & photo sources ↗
Source checked 30 Oct 2026. Current officeholder snapshot; independent of the election year selected below.
Government leadership source (opens in a new tab)Donald Trump portrait (opens in a new tab) · Daniel Torok · Public domain. Display crop; original colours retained.
435 House seats35 Senate contests in the modelOne election. Many possible outcomes.
Senate face-offs
Two candidates in the spotlight. One seat at stake. See the full ballot in each race.
DEMOCRAT · INCUMBENTThomas Jonathan "Jon" Ossoff REPUBLICANMichael Allen "Mike" Collins Jr.TEXASU.S. SENATE
DEMOCRATJames Talarico
REPUBLICANWarren Kenneth "Ken" Paxton Jr.NORTH CAROLINAU.S. SENATE
DEMOCRATRoy Asberry Cooper III REPUBLICANMichael David WhatleyCredits
Featured candidates do not represent the complete ballot. Candidate directory: The Green Papers (opens in a new tab), snapshot 2026-10-21. Georgia portraits: U.S. Senate / Wikimedia Commons (opens in a new tab) and U.S. Congress / Wikimedia Commons (opens in a new tab). Texas portraits: Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0 (opens in a new tab) and Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0 (opens in a new tab) (cropped to fit).
Polling update through 2026-11-02. 330 records collected; 98 model inputs. New experimental methodology; changes are not pure poll movement. Poll archive, exclusions & methodology
Published forecast · 30,000 simulations. Source run: 2026-11-03T01:38:39.715281+00:00. Election results are shown separately.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Projection435 seats. One majority.
218 for majorityDemocratic97%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.236 median seats223–252 seats in the middle 80% of runsRepublican3%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.199 median seats183–212 seats in the middle 80% of runsUNITED STATES SENATE
ProjectionThe balance of the Senate.
51 for majorityDemocratic89%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.53 median seats50–55 seats in the middle 80% of runsRepublican4%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.46 median seats44–49 seats in the middle 80% of runs7% chance control depends on independent alignment
Who could control Congress?
Close contestsFollow a race. Know the names.
The close-contest file
OH-10
Ohio
Kristina Knickerbocker / Mike Turner
0.0 pt central marginExplore the race
OH-9
Ohio
Marcy Kaptur / Derek Merrin
0.3 pt central marginExplore the race
NY-1
New York
Christopher Gallant / Nick LaLota
1.0 pt central marginExplore the race
Every House and Senate seat
RepublicanDemocratic● Independent
Select a seat to see its candidates. Colours show projected margins, not counted votes.
2026 district boundaries published by an external model; simplified for display. Alaska and Hawaii are insets. Senate view uses state boundaries.
Closest House contests
OH-10
OH · Toss-up
DemocraticKristina KnickerbockerRepublicanMike TurnerProjected margin 0.0 points
OH-9
OH · Toss-up
RepublicanDerek MerrinDemocraticMarcy KapturProjected margin 0.3 points
NY-1
NY · Toss-up
RepublicanNick LaLotaDemocraticChristopher GallantProjected margin 1.0 points
TX-35
TX · Toss-up
DemocraticJohnny GarciaRepublicanCarlos De La CruzProjected margin 1.1 points
FL-27
FL · Toss-up
RepublicanMaria Elvira SalazarDemocraticEliott RodriguezProjected margin 1.3 points
FL-22
FL · Toss-up
RepublicanCasey AskarDemocraticPia DandiyaProjected margin 1.3 points
Build your majority
Pick the candidates you think will take the closest seats. Watch your path to control take shape.
Enable JavaScript to make your picks.
Personal scenario, not a forecast or election result. The 40 closest eligible House races or 12 closest eligible Senate races use the saved model’s central margins. Other seats start with its central estimates; Senate totals include held seats. Races with unresolved candidate-identity discrepancies are excluded from choices. Choices include directory-matched modeled candidates only; open a race briefing for the complete directory. Your choices stay on this device when browser storage is available.
The election lab.Polling, district lines & scenario tools ＋
What if the polls miss?
Baseline published forecast
The pivotal seats
How often a race sits at the majority threshold in the source’s baseline simulations.
What changed?
Changes reflect both new polls and an experimental model-methodology change. These runs are not directly comparable measures of campaign movement.
See how the lines changed.
Geographic comparison only. Blue represents 2026 lines and coral represents 2024 lines.
The campaign over time
One simulated election
An individual election draw generated by the displayed model. This is a scenario, not the predicted result. Samples use the baseline forecast.
Move the national vote.
This calculator applies a uniform D–R swing to races with both major parties. Independent shares stay fixed. It calculates central seat outcomes, not win probabilities or a new forecast.
New polling behind the outlook
| Iowa | 47.7 | 47.5 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 5 | 2026-11-01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Few polls | 48.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 2026-10-30 |
| Ohio | 48.1 | 45.7 | 1.0 | +2.5 | 8 | 2026-11-01 |
| Texas | 49.7 | 46.2 | 0.8 | +3.5 | 11 | 2026-11-02 |
| Minnesota Few polls | 48.6 | 44.8 | 0.0 | +3.8 | 2 | 2026-11-01 |
| Kansas | 49.8 | 45.0 | 1.6 | +4.8 | 6 | 2026-11-01 |
| Florida Few polls | 45.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 2026-10-31 |
| Michigan | 50.0 | 44.6 | 0.5 | +5.4 | 9 | 2026-11-01 |
| Maine | 51.1 | 45.6 | 0.0 | +5.6 | 8 | 2026-11-01 |
| Alabama Few polls | 40.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 | 1 | 2026-10-24 |
| Georgia Few polls | 53.1 | 43.8 | 0.0 | +9.2 | 3 | 2026-11-02 |
| North Carolina Few polls | 53.8 | 44.1 | 0.8 | +9.8 | 3 | 2026-10-29 |
| New Hampshire Few polls | 53.3 | 42.7 | 2.0 | +10.6 | 2 | 2026-10-31 |
| Illinois Few polls | 54.2 | 42.5 | 0.0 | +11.6 | 2 | 2026-11-02 |
| Arkansas Few polls | 39.0 | 55.0 | 4.0 | -16.0 | 1 | 2026-10-28 |
| New Mexico Few polls | 56.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | +19.0 | 1 | 2026-11-02 |
| Massachusetts Few polls | 53.0 | 32.0 | 7.0 | +21.0 | 1 | 2026-10-31 |
| Colorado Few polls | 57.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 | +22.0 | 1 | 2026-11-02 |
| Montana Few polls | 10.0 | 38.0 | 41.0 | -28.0 | 1 | 2026-10-23 |
| Rhode Island Few polls | 63.0 | 32.0 | 3.0 | +31.0 | 1 | 2026-10-31 |
| South Carolina Few polls | 46.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | +46.1 | 3 | 2026-11-01 |
| South Dakota Few polls | 0.0 | 47.1 | 42.3 | -47.1 | 2 | 2026-10-26 |
| Nebraska Few polls | 0.0 | 48.5 | 49.0 | -48.5 | 2 | 2026-10-29 |
Original poll releases & attribution
Forecasts, with context.
This experimental PolityIQ polling update combines a dated October 22 prior with newly collected polls. It has not yet been historically calibrated. The displayed probabilities and intervals depend on the assumptions described in the poll archive and model notes. These are projections, not election returns. Candidate names are cross-checked against the dated Green Papers directory; unresolved identities stay labelled.
What does a probability mean?
It is the share of the model’s simulated elections in which an outcome occurs. An 80% interval covers the middle 80% of modeled seat counts. It is not a guarantee or a calibrated confidence claim. Common national and state polling error prevents individual races from being treated as independent.
How do polling-error scenarios work?
Chamber odds use nine correlated simulations from four points toward Republicans to four toward Democrats. The map’s uniform D–R adjustment is a visual scenario; race win probabilities and individual sample elections remain baseline figures. Held Democratic-caucusing independents count with Democrats for Senate control; new independent winners are unaligned.
How current is this?
Polling data through October 31 is loaded from the saved PolityIQ run. Refresh checks that same published run; it does not claim a new poll collection. The October 22-to-October 31 comparison also changes methodology, so its movement cannot be attributed solely to new polls. Live election results have a separate feed status.
Races receivedPublished candidate and live-source records; coverage varies
States & territories with recordsIncludes DC and five inhabited US territories
Candidate directory / live feed
STATE EXPLORER
United States
Choose a state to filter its races. This is a geographic explorer; neutral map colours do not imply a party lead.
State shapes: US Atlas, derived from simplified Census boundaries. Alaska and Hawaii are insets. Territory buttons are not drawn to scale. Congressional district maps appear only when supplied by CivicAPI for a selected race.
PUBLISHED RACE DIRECTORY
Find your race.
The directory contains source-provided races only. Coverage may be partial, especially for state and local contests.
BEHIND THE NUMBERS
Independent design. Traceable data.
Results belong in the spotlight. Sources stay within reach.
CivicAPI
Race records, candidates, incumbency flags and regional results. Full records can be downloaded from an opened race.
API documentation (opens in a new tab)Your vote
Find registration, polling and voting information from official election offices.
Voting information (opens in a new tab)Parties & candidates
Official party artwork. Candidate photographs only when supplied; initials mark unavailable photos.
Artwork sources (opens in a new tab)Sources, coverage & methodology
Powered by CivicAPI
Candidate names, affiliations and current officeholders are supplied by The Green Papers, using a dated snapshot loaded independently of the live feed. CivicAPI supplies live race records when available. Source calls are labelled “CivicAPI called”; they are not certification by an election authority. A candidate leading is not a winner declaration.
CivicAPI documentation (opens in a new tab)Broad coverage, visible gaps
The national feed requests CivicAPI General and Statewide races dated November 3–December 31, 2026, including subsequent contests and runoffs when supplied. Local contests are excluded from this feed to keep national coverage reliable. Coverage depends on the provider. A missing race or candidate is not evidence that no election is taking place.
The source search returns up to three candidate previews. Full candidate records load for displayed races when available, and selecting a race requests an uncapped full list. Incumbent flags and supplied photos appear with those records. A limit warning appears if the inventory is truncated.
Freshness and interruptions
The inventory and an opened race refresh about every minute while this tab is visible. Failed requests back off for two minutes and retain any previously verified results, clearly labelled delayed. Successful retrieval time and the provider’s update timestamp are shown separately.
Congress and election dates
All 435 voting House seats are elected in the congressional cycle; Senate terms are staggered. Delegates, special elections and local contests may also appear in the source. This page does not project chamber control from partial coverage.
USAGov · how midterms work (opens in a new tab)Maps and regional detail
The national map filters states. Selected-race maps and county or other regional breakdowns appear only where CivicAPI provides them. These maps follow the provider’s boundaries; the state explorer is not a 2026 congressional district map.
Logos, photos & complete records
The candidate directory snapshot is dated October 21, 2026; it does not refresh automatically. Party artwork comes from official party sources, with source-supplied artwork used for other affiliations when available. Candidate photos appear only when included in the race record; a labelled initials tile means no source photograph is available. Incumbency follows the provider’s flags and may omit retiring officeholders.
Every full race record can be inspected and downloaded as the original provider JSON, including fields not shown in the main result card.
Party logo sources (opens in a new tab)Voting information
Polling hours and voting rules vary. This countdown marks the start of Election Day in Eastern time, not a nationwide polls-close time. Check official state and local election offices for voting information and certified results.
Official voting information (opens in a new tab)How to read the data
- Live
- Unofficial counts arriving now.
- Official preliminary
- Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
- Projection
- Model output, not an election result.
- Simulated
- A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
- Archived
- Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.