PL · 22Flávio Bolsonaro
Senator · challenger48.21%59,826,041 votes
Result recordedOct 4 first round 47.03%56,104,503 votes
BRASIL / THE FINAL ROUND / 25 OCTOBER 2026
Brazil.
Presidential results.
The presidential runoff, in one clear view. Official national counts, state-by-state results and the polling context behind the contest.
BrazilCURRENT NATIONAL LEADERSHIP
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
President
Leadership & photo sources ↗
Source checked 30 Oct 2026. Current officeholder snapshot; independent of the election year selected below. Leadership follows the dated reference record linked here.
Leadership record (opens in a new tab)Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva portrait (opens in a new tab) · Palácio do Planalto from Brasilia, Brasil · CC BY 2.0 (opens in a new tab). Display crop; original colours retained.
PRESIDENT / NATIONAL COUNT
The presidential result.
RUNOFF · OCT 25
Loading archived results
PL · 22
PT · 13Lula
President · incumbent51.79%64,256,232 votes
Elected · TSEOct 4 first round 45.16%53,879,538 votes
PL 48.21%50% of valid votes51.79% PT
Lula elected · TSE +3.57 pp4,430,191 vote gap
Sections totalized100.00%
Valid votes124,082,273
National vote gap4,430,191
Elected status recorded by TSE. Completed runoff results.
Since you opened this page Snapshot log ↓
- Waiting for the first verified national snapshot.
Completed source snapshot. Open the result studio to replay the saved count observations.
01 / FOLLOW THE GEOGRAPHY
Where the votes are.
Completed TSE runoff result archive. Live collection is off; first-round history remains available.
Colour shows each state’s leading candidate.
Flávio Bolsonaro · PLLula · PTGrey = awaiting runoff votes
Official runoff votes only. Select a state for its tally; grey means no accepted votes. Every valid vote contributes to the national total. IBGE 2025 boundaries.
THE STATE WATCH
Every state. One national result.
Runoff counts only · grey cards are awaiting votes. State leads are not seats won.
See all states, ordered by closest first-round margin 27 states / Federal District + overseas
| State | First-place candidate | Margin | Vote gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lula | 0.05 pp | 225 | |
| Lula | 3.24 pp | 70,232 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 4.91 pp | 588,612 | |
| Lula | 5.41 pp | 263,280 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 7.02 pp | 65,312 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 13.20 pp | 233,989 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 13.60 pp | 1,273,823 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 13.73 pp | 3,416,610 | |
| Lula | 14.28 pp | 259,741 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 17.02 pp | 383,166 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 19.91 pp | 1,279,024 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 22.55 pp | 863,008 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 23.92 pp | 356,496 | |
| Lula | 24.98 pp | 517,470 | |
| Lula | 28.23 pp | 709,750 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 28.71 pp | 1,890,748 | |
| Lula | 32.01 pp | 1,798,413 | |
| Lula | 32.12 pp | 438,180 | |
| Lula | 32.42 pp | 1,815,928 | |
| Lula | 33.10 pp | 1,327,261 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 35.82 pp | 168,037 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 35.97 pp | 716,900 | |
| Lula | 37.64 pp | 3,222,186 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 41.56 pp | 402,321 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 41.61 pp | 1,872,852 | |
| Lula | 46.90 pp | 1,006,682 | |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 48.20 pp | 156,902 |
02 / THE RUNOFF OUTLOOK
POLLING SNAPSHOT / OCT 24, 2026A small edge. An open race.
Flávio Bolsonaro / PL51.1%
Lula / PT48.9%
Flávio holds a narrow numerical polling edge. Polling error, turnout and late choices could change the outcome. This is a support estimate from 10 firms, not a win probability or a race call.
Read how this snapshot is calculatedThe final polling picture.
Latest included release per firm · valid / normalized support
The polling desk
18 selected runoff polls from 10 firms. This is a checked editorial snapshot, not an exhaustive or automatically updating poll archive. Each row links to its publisher, report or named news source. Five final national waves released October 24 were added on October 25. AtlasIntel, Datafolha and Nexus were checked in original reports or commissioning-publisher material; Quaest and Futura remain explicitly news-reported. CNT/MDA October 24 is held: reviewed coverage disagrees on total sample size (2,002 versus 2,032). This is a selected collection, not all Brazilian polling.
| Pollster / source | Fieldwork | Sample / error | Flávio / PL | Lula / PT | Vote base / registration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (opens in a new tab)Random digital recruitment · Publisher checked | 18–23 OctReleased 24 Oct | 4,990±1 pp · 95% | 50.8% | 49.2% | Valid votesBR-06380/2026Original Atlas/Bloomberg report, methodology pp. 4–5 and valid-vote chart p. 8; report hosted by CNN Brasil. National adult sample; separate valid-vote question n not stated. |
| Datafolha (opens in a new tab)Face-to-face interviews · Publisher checked | 23–24 OctReleased 24 Oct | 4,050±2 pp · 95% | 51.0% | 49.0% | Valid votesBR-09540/2026Commissioning publisher Folha; 4,050 voters in 124 municipalities. Rounded valid-vote shares; original release also reports 50.89 / 49.11 unrounded. Separate valid-vote question base not stated. |
| Genial/Quaest (opens in a new tab)Collection mode not stated in reviewed release · News-reported | 23–24 OctReleased 24 Oct | 3,702±2 pp · 95% | 51.0% | 49.0% | Valid votesBR-09158/2026CNN Brasil reports the Grupo Globo-commissioned national wave, ages 16+. Original full report not obtained; kept labelled news-reported. Valid votes exclude blank/null; separate question base not supplied. |
| BTG/Nexus (opens in a new tab)Telephone (CATI) · Publisher checked | 23–24 OctReleased 24 Oct | 2,000±2.2 pp · 95% | 50.5% | 49.5% | Valid votesBR-08234/2026All-interviewee valid-vote scenario, ages 16+, all 27 states; 90% of interviews on Oct 24. Does not substitute the separate likely-voter model (52.4 / 47.6). Separate valid-vote base not stated. |
| Futura/100% Cidades (opens in a new tab)Collection mode not stated in reviewed release · News-reported | 23–24 OctReleased 24 Oct | 2,000±2.2 pp · 95% | 50.1% | 49.9% | Valid votesBR-09726/2026CNN Brasil report; self-funded national wave. Original full report not obtained; kept labelled news-reported. Separate valid-vote question base not supplied. |
| PoderData/Aya (opens in a new tab)Telephone · Publisher checked | 19–21 OctReleased 22 Oct | 4,000±1.6 pp · 95% | 51.0% | 49.0% | Valid votesBR-07926/2026 |
| Gerp (opens in a new tab)Telephone (GerpCATI) · News-reported | 19–21 OctReleased 21 Oct | 2,400±2 pp · 95% | 53.0% | 47.0% | Valid votesBR-03835/2026 |
| Genial/Quaest (opens in a new tab)Face-to-face household interviews · News-reported | 17–20 OctReleased 21 Oct | 2,154±2 pp · 95% | 45.0% | 44.0% | All respondentsNormalized: 50.56 / 49.44BR-08535/2026 |
| Meio/Ideia (opens in a new tab)Telephone · News-reported | 15–19 OctReleased 21 Oct | 1,500±2.5 pp · 95% | 51.1% | 48.9% | Valid votesBR-08251/2026 |
| RealTime Big Data (opens in a new tab)Telephone · News-reported | 15–19 OctReleased 20 Oct | 2,000±2 pp · 95% | 52.0% | 48.0% | Valid votesBR-02952/2026 |
| PoderData/Aya (opens in a new tab)Telephone · Publisher checked | 16–18 OctReleased 19 Oct | 3,000±1.8 pp · 95% | 52.0% | 48.0% | Valid votesBR-02586/2026 |
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (opens in a new tab)Random digital recruitment · Publisher checked | 13–18 OctReleased 19 Oct | 4,998±1 pp · 95% | 51.1% | 48.9% | Valid votesBR-02418/2026 |
| BTG/Nexus (opens in a new tab)Telephone · Publisher checked | 16–18 OctReleased 19 Oct | 2,002±2 pp · 95% | 50.3% | 49.7% | Valid votesBR-04499/2026 |
| PoderData/Aya (opens in a new tab)Telephone · Publisher checked | 13–15 OctReleased 16 Oct | 3,000±1.8 pp · 95% | 50.0% | 50.0% | Valid votesBR-04258/2026 |
| CNT/MDA (opens in a new tab)Face-to-face interviews · News-reported | 13–15 OctReleased 16 Oct | 2,002±2.2 pp · 95% | 50.5% | 49.5% | Valid votesBR-00652/2026 |
| Datafolha (opens in a new tab)Face-to-face interviews · Publisher checked | 13–14 OctReleased 15 Oct | 2,520±2 pp · 95% | 51.0% | 49.0% | Valid votesBR-00466/2026 |
| Genial/Quaest (opens in a new tab)Face-to-face household interviews · News-reported | 10–13 OctReleased 14 Oct | 2,154±2 pp · 95% | 46.0% | 44.0% | All respondentsNormalized: 51.11 / 48.89BR-08729/2026 |
| AtlasIntel/Bloomberg (opens in a new tab)Random digital recruitment · Publisher checked | 03–08 OctReleased 09 Oct | 5,026±1 pp · 95% | 52.8% | 47.2% | Valid votesBR-03663/2026Fieldwork began before the first-round vote. Excluded from the current polling snapshot. |
Methodology, uncertainty & coverage
Current snapshot: latest national runoff poll per firm, fieldwork starting after October 4 and ending within 14 days of October 24, 2026. Weight = square root of sample size (capped at 3,000) × recency decay with a seven-day half-life. Total-response polls are normalized to the two finalists; their published figures and original base stay visible in the table. The Atlas October 3–8 release crosses the first round and is excluded from the current snapshot.
No house-effect, turnout or demographic adjustment is applied. The snapshot has no calibrated confidence interval or win probability. Individual poll margins of error are reproduced as published and do not describe the uncertainty of this aggregate. Shared polling errors remain possible. Registration references identify releases; registration by TSE is not an endorsement of their estimates. Polling support is never used to colour the official results map.
Where could the
last votes go?
9,316,747 first-round valid votes went to candidates who are now out. Explore how transfers and finalist turnout could change the arithmetic.
YOUR SCENARIO · NOT A FORECASTILLUSTRATIVE RUNOFF VALID VOTES
Retained finalist voters keep their candidate. Unretained voters abstain or cast no valid vote; they do not switch sides. Returning eliminated-candidate voters split according to your slider. No new voters are added. This arithmetic cannot predict individual behaviour.
Official counts. Visible provenance.
Completed result archive
TSE official production JSON, presidential elections 6257 (first round) and 6258 (runoff). The completed runoff is preserved as a dated result archive. Automatic refresh and live collection are off. National and state records retain their original source times.
TSE technical documentation (opens in a new tab)Only official-environment files are accepted. Runoff votes dated before October 25 at 17:00 BRT are rejected. Test and first-round data cannot populate the runoff. An elected label requires TSE’s own candidate status.
Geography & identities
Map: IBGE 2025 state and Federal District boundaries, simplified for display. First-round national totals reconcile with all 27 geographic units plus overseas voters. Finalist photographs come directly from TSE; party logos are the PT and PL marks, archived through Wikimedia Commons.
IBGE boundary files (opens in a new tab)PT logo provenance (opens in a new tab) · PL logo provenance (opens in a new tab)
Portraits identify the presidential candidates, not the administrative heads of their parties. Party branding does not imply endorsement. This desk covers the presidency; legislative and gubernatorial contests are not included.
How to read the data
- Live
- Unofficial counts arriving now.
- Official preliminary
- Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
- Projection
- Model output, not an election result.
- Simulated
- A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
- Archived
- Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.