A country of close contests. Compare the people, places and possible paths to control of Congress.
Polling update through 2026-11-02. 330 records collected; 98 model inputs. New experimental methodology; changes are not pure poll movement. Poll archive, exclusions & methodology
Democratic97%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.236 median seats223–252 seats in the middle 80% of runs
Republican3%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.199 median seats183–212 seats in the middle 80% of runsDemocratic89%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.53 median seats50–55 seats in the middle 80% of runsRepublican4%chance of controlExperimental model, not back-tested.46 median seats44–49 seats in the middle 80% of runs7% chance control depends on independent alignment
Kristina Knickerbocker / Mike Turner
Marcy Kaptur / Derek Merrin
Christopher Gallant / Nick LaLota
Select a seat to see its candidates. Colours show projected margins, not counted votes.
2026 district boundaries published by an external model; simplified for display. Alaska and Hawaii are insets. Senate view uses state boundaries.
OH · Toss-up
DemocraticKristina KnickerbockerRepublicanMike TurnerProjected margin 0.0 points
OH · Toss-up
RepublicanDerek MerrinDemocraticMarcy KapturProjected margin 0.3 points
NY · Toss-up
RepublicanNick LaLotaDemocraticChristopher GallantProjected margin 1.0 points
TX · Toss-up
DemocraticJohnny GarciaRepublicanCarlos De La CruzProjected margin 1.1 points
FL · Toss-up
RepublicanMaria Elvira SalazarDemocraticEliott RodriguezProjected margin 1.3 points
FL · Toss-up
RepublicanCasey AskarDemocraticPia DandiyaProjected margin 1.3 points
Pick the candidates you think will take the closest seats. Watch your path to control take shape.
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Personal scenario, not a forecast or election result. The 40 closest eligible House races or 12 closest eligible Senate races use the saved model’s central margins. Other seats start with its central estimates; Senate totals include held seats. Races with unresolved candidate-identity discrepancies are excluded from choices. Choices include directory-matched modeled candidates only; open a race briefing for the complete directory. Your choices stay on this device when browser storage is available.
Baseline published forecast
How often a race sits at the majority threshold in the source’s baseline simulations.
Changes reflect both new polls and an experimental model-methodology change. These runs are not directly comparable measures of campaign movement.
Geographic comparison only. Blue represents 2026 lines and coral represents 2024 lines.
An individual election draw generated by the displayed model. This is a scenario, not the predicted result. Samples use the baseline forecast.
This calculator applies a uniform D–R swing to races with both major parties. Independent shares stay fixed. It calculates central seat outcomes, not win probabilities or a new forecast.
| Iowa | 47.7 | 47.5 | 1.3 | +0.1 | 5 | 2026-11-01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Few polls | 48.0 | 46.0 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 2026-10-30 |
| Ohio | 48.1 | 45.7 | 1.0 | +2.5 | 8 | 2026-11-01 |
| Texas | 49.7 | 46.2 | 0.8 | +3.5 | 11 | 2026-11-02 |
| Minnesota Few polls | 48.6 | 44.8 | 0.0 | +3.8 | 2 | 2026-11-01 |
| Kansas | 49.8 | 45.0 | 1.6 | +4.8 | 6 | 2026-11-01 |
| Florida Few polls | 45.0 | 50.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 2026-10-31 |
| Michigan | 50.0 | 44.6 | 0.5 | +5.4 | 9 | 2026-11-01 |
| Maine | 51.1 | 45.6 | 0.0 | +5.6 | 8 | 2026-11-01 |
| Alabama Few polls | 40.0 | 48.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 | 1 | 2026-10-24 |
| Georgia Few polls | 53.1 | 43.8 | 0.0 | +9.2 | 3 | 2026-11-02 |
| North Carolina Few polls | 53.8 | 44.1 | 0.8 | +9.8 | 3 | 2026-10-29 |
| New Hampshire Few polls | 53.3 | 42.7 | 2.0 | +10.6 | 2 | 2026-10-31 |
| Illinois Few polls | 54.2 | 42.5 | 0.0 | +11.6 | 2 | 2026-11-02 |
| Arkansas Few polls | 39.0 | 55.0 | 4.0 | -16.0 | 1 | 2026-10-28 |
| New Mexico Few polls | 56.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | +19.0 | 1 | 2026-11-02 |
| Massachusetts Few polls | 53.0 | 32.0 | 7.0 | +21.0 | 1 | 2026-10-31 |
| Colorado Few polls | 57.0 | 35.0 | 0.0 | +22.0 | 1 | 2026-11-02 |
| Montana Few polls | 10.0 | 38.0 | 41.0 | -28.0 | 1 | 2026-10-23 |
| Rhode Island Few polls | 63.0 | 32.0 | 3.0 | +31.0 | 1 | 2026-10-31 |
| South Carolina Few polls | 46.1 | 0.0 | 2.6 | +46.1 | 3 | 2026-11-01 |
| South Dakota Few polls | 0.0 | 47.1 | 42.3 | -47.1 | 2 | 2026-10-26 |
| Nebraska Few polls | 0.0 | 48.5 | 49.0 | -48.5 | 2 | 2026-10-29 |
This experimental PolityIQ polling update combines a dated October 22 prior with newly collected polls. It has not yet been historically calibrated. The displayed probabilities and intervals depend on the assumptions described in the poll archive and model notes. These are projections, not election returns. Candidate names are cross-checked against the dated Green Papers directory; unresolved identities stay labelled.
It is the share of the model’s simulated elections in which an outcome occurs. An 80% interval covers the middle 80% of modeled seat counts. It is not a guarantee or a calibrated confidence claim. Common national and state polling error prevents individual races from being treated as independent.
Chamber odds use nine correlated simulations from four points toward Republicans to four toward Democrats. The map’s uniform D–R adjustment is a visual scenario; race win probabilities and individual sample elections remain baseline figures. Held Democratic-caucusing independents count with Democrats for Senate control; new independent winners are unaligned.
Polling data through October 31 is loaded from the saved PolityIQ run. Refresh checks that same published run; it does not claim a new poll collection. The October 22-to-October 31 comparison also changes methodology, so its movement cannot be attributed solely to new polls. Live election results have a separate feed status.
Choose a state to filter its races. This is a geographic explorer; neutral map colours do not imply a party lead.
The directory contains source-provided races only. Coverage may be partial, especially for state and local contests.
Results belong in the spotlight. Sources stay within reach.
Race records, candidates, incumbency flags and regional results. Full records can be downloaded from an opened race.
API documentation (opens in a new tab)Find registration, polling and voting information from official election offices.
Voting information (opens in a new tab)Official party artwork. Candidate photographs only when supplied; initials mark unavailable photos.
Artwork sources (opens in a new tab)Candidate names, affiliations and current officeholders are supplied by The Green Papers, using a dated snapshot loaded independently of the live feed. CivicAPI supplies live race records when available. Source calls are labelled “CivicAPI called”; they are not certification by an election authority. A candidate leading is not a winner declaration.
CivicAPI documentation (opens in a new tab)The national feed requests CivicAPI General and Statewide races dated November 3–December 31, 2026, including subsequent contests and runoffs when supplied. Local contests are excluded from this feed to keep national coverage reliable. Coverage depends on the provider. A missing race or candidate is not evidence that no election is taking place.
The source search returns up to three candidate previews. Full candidate records load for displayed races when available, and selecting a race requests an uncapped full list. Incumbent flags and supplied photos appear with those records. A limit warning appears if the inventory is truncated.
The inventory and an opened race refresh about every minute while this tab is visible. Failed requests back off for two minutes and retain any previously verified results, clearly labelled delayed. Successful retrieval time and the provider’s update timestamp are shown separately.
All 435 voting House seats are elected in the congressional cycle; Senate terms are staggered. Delegates, special elections and local contests may also appear in the source. This page does not project chamber control from partial coverage.
USAGov · how midterms work (opens in a new tab)The national map filters states. Selected-race maps and county or other regional breakdowns appear only where CivicAPI provides them. These maps follow the provider’s boundaries; the state explorer is not a 2026 congressional district map.
The candidate directory snapshot is dated October 21, 2026; it does not refresh automatically. Party artwork comes from official party sources, with source-supplied artwork used for other affiliations when available. Candidate photos appear only when included in the race record; a labelled initials tile means no source photograph is available. Incumbency follows the provider’s flags and may omit retiring officeholders.
Every full race record can be inspected and downloaded as the original provider JSON, including fields not shown in the main result card.
Party logo sources (opens in a new tab)Polling hours and voting rules vary. This countdown marks the start of Election Day in Eastern time, not a nationwide polls-close time. Check official state and local election offices for voting information and certified results.
Official voting information (opens in a new tab)