The polls, side by side.
Toronto mayoral election polls, by pollster. July 26–October 22, 2026.
Election day: October 26, 2026.
One city.
Different contests.
Explore published area polling. Switch to wards for election-night counts.
Area estimates only. Tap an area or choose a row below. Hatching marks a numerical gap under five points, not a statistical confidence test.
| Area | Chow | Bradford | Numerical edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50.9% | 46.3% | Chow +4.6 | |
| 45.1% | 52.9% | Bradford +7.8 | |
| 41.2% | 54.1% | Bradford +12.9 | |
| 58.2% | 37.2% | Chow +21.0 |
Nanos / CP24 original report (opens in a new tab) · Fieldwork October 15–18; released October 20. Total n = 762; decided n = 682. See page 5 for regional figures.
Decided voters; report page 5. Regional bases are unweighted decided respondents. Regional uncertainty is larger than the citywide poll's uncertainty. Former municipality outlines illustrate the named survey regions; exact survey boundary definitions were not published. No ward-level poll estimates are inferred.
Boundaries: former municipalities (opens in a new tab) and City wards (opens in a new tab). Contains information licensed under the Open Government Licence – Toronto. Geometry simplified for display.
Ward results: City of Toronto election-night feed (opens in a new tab). Counts begin after polls close October 26 at 8 p.m. Eastern. Leading does not mean elected. Rehearsal data is excluded from this map.
| Pollster | Fieldwork ended* | Sample | Chow | Bradford | Alexander |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liaison Strategies IVR | |||||
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 47 | 49 | – | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 51 | 46 | – | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 48 | 40 | 9 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 48 | 39 | 10 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 47 | 40 | 10 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 50 | 39 | 10 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 49 | 38 | 11 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 47 | 40 | 10 | |
| Liaison StrategiesPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 1,000 | 49 | 41 | – | |
| Mainstreet Research IVR | |||||
| Mainstreet ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,000 | 48 | 49 | – | |
| Mainstreet ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,000 | 47 | 44 | – | |
| Mainstreet ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,000 | 45 | 38 | 9 | |
| Mainstreet ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,000 | 46 | 38 | 10 | |
| Nanos Research Phone and online | |||||
| Nanos ResearchPrimary checked (opens in a new tab) | 762 | 50 | 47 | – | |
| Nanos ResearchSupplied · not verified | 757 | 51 | 47 | – | |
| Nanos ResearchSupplied · not verified | 755 | 52 | 43 | 4 | |
| Forum Research IVR | |||||
| Forum ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,604 | 46 | 42 | – | |
| Forum ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,014 | 46 | 35 | 6 | |
| Forum ResearchSupplied · not verified | 1,011 | 47 | 32 | 11 | |
| Pallas Data IVR | |||||
| Pallas DataSupplied · not verified | 732 | 52 | 46 | – | |
| Pallas DataSupplied · not verified | 808 | 50 | 39 | 8 | |
| Other pollsters | |||||
| Pollara Strategic InsightsSupplied · not verified | 1,099 | 53 | 46 | – | |
| Build CanadaSupplied · not verified | 991 | 44 | 48 | – | |
| Scope Research†Supplied · not verified | 3,100 | 44 | 41 | – | |
| Canada Pulse InsightsSupplied · not verified | 510 | 51 | 34 | 9 | |
| Ipsos‡Supplied · not verified | 1,006 | 36 | 21 | 4 | |
Reading the table. *Dates indicate when surveying finished. Other candidates make up the remainder of each poll. A dash means the candidate was not included. Alexander entered the race on July 29 and withdrew in early October.
† Scope Research: online poll by text-message invitation; 11% undecided. Listed for the record, with less published method detail than the other firms.
‡ Ipsos: shares are among all respondents, with 30% undecided, so this poll is not directly comparable to the others.
Mainstreet, October 18: decided voters only. Some outlets reported Bradford at 48.9% and Chow at 47.5%; the table retains the supplied rounded figures.
Source attribution supplied with this compilation: City Hall Watcher poll archive, CP24, CBC and Toronto Life. Nine Liaison releases and the latest Nanos release have been checked against their original publisher reports; their source links appear in the table. Other rows remain supplied records awaiting independent verification. New polls are not added automatically.
How to read the data
- Live
- Unofficial counts arriving now.
- Official preliminary
- Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
- Projection
- Model output, not an election result.
- Simulated
- A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
- Archived
- Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.