Conservative Party
55 modelled seats43.7% poll average
51–61 seats across ±4-point margin scenarios; not a confidence interval.THE FINAL WORD / OCTOBER 23, 2026
The advantage.
The uncertainty.
Conservatives favoured for the most seats. A majority is plausible; close local races can still change the outcome.
PRE-ELECTION PROJECTION · Experimental uniform-swing model. These are estimates, never live results or riding polls.
BC NDP
36 modelled seats38.5% poll average
30–40 seats across ±4-point margin scenarios; not a confidence interval.
BC Green Party
2 modelled seats13.0% poll average
2–2 seats across ±4-point margin scenarios; not a confidence interval.93 seats · 47 for a majority · One latest wave per firm, equal weights. Polling average is not a prediction of exact vote shares.
THE PROVINCE / RIDING BY RIDING
Find your corner of BC.
Orange: NDP · Blue: Conservative · Green: Green. Select a riding for names and estimates.
THE EVIDENCE / SIX FINAL WAVES
Each poll. Its own context.
Latest verified releases, including October 22 releases. This is a final-wave collection, not a complete historical BC archive.
Mainstreet Research 2026-10-21 – 2026-10-23 · n=1,043 · IVR
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 42.9% | 37.2% | 17% |
Undecideds removed; question base 1,012. CentreBC 1.0%; OneBC 1.8%.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)Research Co. 2026-10-21 – 2026-10-23 · n=802 · Online
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | 40% | 10% |
722 decided likely voters. CentreBC 2%; OneBC 2%.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)Pallas Data 2026-10-22 – 2026-10-22 · n=702 · IVR
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | 39% | 12% |
Decided and leaning. Page date October 24; release text October 23. Smaller parties not specified in release.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)Ipsos / Global BC 2026-10-20 – 2026-10-22 · n=1,260 · Online + live phone
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | 39% | 13% |
Decided voters. OneBC 2%; CentreBC 1%; other 1%.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)Léger 2026-10-20 – 2026-10-22 · n=1,072 · Online
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | 39% | 13% |
Decided voters. Released October 22; included as the latest wave from this firm.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)Pollara Strategic Insights 2026-10-15 – 2026-10-21 · n=2,202 · Online + IVR
| Conservative | NDP | Green |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | 37% | 13% |
Decided voters, not Pollara’s separate ballot-adjusted projection. Release says all interviews followed debate despite fieldwork beginning October 15; no dates inferred.
Original pollster release (opens in a new tab)SHOW OUR WORK
A model you can inspect.
Equal weight for the latest verified wave from each of six firms. Mainstreet’s undecideds-removed figures, Research Co.’s decided likely voters, and other firms’ decided/leaning figures are kept with their original bases. Methods differ; equal weighting does not remove correlated polling error.
For Conservative, NDP and Green candidates, the model adds the change from certified 2024 province-wide vote share to each riding’s 2024 party share. A 0.2% floor avoids negative estimates. Parties absent from the current ballot receive no estimate. Remaining candidates retain their party’s 2024 local share, or a 0.5% placeholder if absent in 2024. All candidate scores are normalized to 100% in each riding.
This simplified baseline is weakest for new parties, independents, candidate changes and Green support where no candidate ran in 2024. It does not model tactical voting, turnout or incumbency. Missing two candidate identities in conflicting official rosters also remain a limitation. Small-party estimates are assumptions, not measured riding support. Provincial averages will not exactly equal aggregated riding estimates.
Scenarios transfer two percentage points between Conservative and NDP polling inputs in either direction, shifting their margin by four points. They are sensitivity examples, not statistical intervals. No calibrated winning probabilities are claimed. Regional polling has not been incorporated because compatible complete regional tables have not yet been validated.
Baseline: Elections BC certified 2024 results. Candidates: official roster snapshot. Frozen October 23 forecast; new polls require verified inclusion and recalculation. Live election results are separate.
All 93 estimates.
| Riding | Modelled leader | Margin |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver-Yaletown | Conservative Party | 0.3 pts |
| Ladysmith-Oceanside | Conservative Party | 0.8 pts |
| Burnaby South-Metrotown | BC NDP | 1.1 pts |
| Kootenay Central | BC NDP | 1.4 pts |
| Surrey-Newton | BC NDP | 1.7 pts |
| Mid Island-Pacific Rim | BC NDP | 2.6 pts |
| Victoria-Beacon Hill | BC NDP | 2.8 pts |
| Surrey-Fleetwood | Conservative Party | 3.0 pts |
| Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows | BC NDP | 3.2 pts |
| Burnaby North | BC NDP | 3.7 pts |
| Cowichan Valley | Conservative Party | 3.9 pts |
| Vancouver-Langara | Conservative Party | 4.4 pts |
| Burnaby East | BC NDP | 4.7 pts |
| Port Moody-Burquitlam | BC NDP | 4.9 pts |
| Coquitlam-Burke Mountain | Conservative Party | 5.0 pts |
| Nanaimo-Lantzville | BC NDP | 5.6 pts |
| Richmond-Steveston | Conservative Party | 5.7 pts |
| Coquitlam-Maillardville | BC NDP | 5.7 pts |
| Surrey City Centre | Conservative Party | 5.9 pts |
| Vernon-Lumby | Conservative Party | 6.0 pts |
| Juan de Fuca-Malahat | Conservative Party | 6.1 pts |
| Kootenay-Monashee | BC NDP | 6.5 pts |
| Delta North | BC NDP | 6.6 pts |
| Surrey-Guildford | Conservative Party | 6.8 pts |
| West Vancouver-Sea to Sky | BC Green Party | 6.9 pts |
| Maple Ridge East | Conservative Party | 7.1 pts |
| Courtenay-Comox | Conservative Party | 7.2 pts |
| Powell River-Sunshine Coast | BC NDP | 7.4 pts |
| Langford-Highlands | BC NDP | 7.7 pts |
| Burnaby Centre | BC NDP | 7.9 pts |
| Port Coquitlam | BC NDP | 8.4 pts |
| Surrey-Panorama | Conservative Party | 8.4 pts |
| Kelowna Centre | Conservative Party | 8.6 pts |
| North Island | Conservative Party | 8.9 pts |
| Penticton-Summerland | Conservative Party | 9.1 pts |
| Surrey-Cloverdale | Conservative Party | 9.5 pts |
| Surrey-Serpentine River | Conservative Party | 9.6 pts |
| Columbia River-Revelstoke | Conservative Party | 10.5 pts |
| Langley-Willowbrook | Conservative Party | 10.6 pts |
| Saanich South | BC NDP | 10.7 pts |
| North Vancouver-Seymour | BC NDP | 11.0 pts |
| Saanich North and the Islands | BC Green Party | 11.0 pts |
| Nanaimo-Gabriola Island | BC NDP | 11.5 pts |
| Langley-Walnut Grove | Conservative Party | 11.6 pts |
| Oak Bay-Gordon Head | BC NDP | 13.6 pts |
| Skeena | Conservative Party | 13.7 pts |
| Surrey-White Rock | Conservative Party | 14.0 pts |
| Vancouver-Fraserview | BC NDP | 14.0 pts |
| Surrey North | Conservative Party | 14.3 pts |
| Richmond-Queensborough | Conservative Party | 14.4 pts |
| Kamloops Centre | Conservative Party | 14.6 pts |
| Boundary-Similkameen | Conservative Party | 14.7 pts |
| Esquimalt-Colwood | BC NDP | 15.7 pts |
| Vancouver-Point Grey | BC NDP | 15.7 pts |
| Chilliwack-Cultus Lake | Conservative Party | 16.9 pts |
| Delta South | Conservative Party | 17.0 pts |
| Abbotsford-Mission | Conservative Party | 18.3 pts |
| Vancouver-Quilchena | Conservative Party | 19.8 pts |
| Burnaby-New Westminster | BC NDP | 20.9 pts |
| Victoria-Swan Lake | BC NDP | 22.2 pts |
| New Westminster-Coquitlam | BC NDP | 22.9 pts |
| Vancouver-Kensington | BC NDP | 23.0 pts |
| North Vancouver-Lonsdale | BC NDP | 23.3 pts |
| North Coast-Haida Gwaii | BC NDP | 23.4 pts |
| Bulkley Valley-Stikine | Conservative Party | 23.5 pts |
| Surrey South | Conservative Party | 24.4 pts |
| Richmond Centre | Conservative Party | 24.9 pts |
| Fraser-Nicola | Conservative Party | 24.9 pts |
| Vancouver-Little Mountain | BC NDP | 25.1 pts |
| Vancouver-Renfrew | BC NDP | 26.0 pts |
| Prince George-Valemount | Conservative Party | 27.1 pts |
| Chilliwack North | Conservative Party | 27.2 pts |
| Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream | Conservative Party | 27.3 pts |
| Kelowna-Mission | Conservative Party | 29.0 pts |
| Vancouver-West End | BC NDP | 29.6 pts |
| Langley-Abbotsford | Conservative Party | 30.1 pts |
| Abbotsford West | Conservative Party | 31.4 pts |
| Salmon Arm-Shuswap | Conservative Party | 31.7 pts |
| Vancouver-South Granville | BC NDP | 32.7 pts |
| Vancouver-Hastings | BC NDP | 33.3 pts |
| West Vancouver-Capilano | Conservative Party | 33.3 pts |
| Richmond-Bridgeport | Conservative Party | 34.6 pts |
| Abbotsford South | Conservative Party | 36.3 pts |
| West Kelowna-Peachland | Conservative Party | 38.2 pts |
| Kamloops-North Thompson | Conservative Party | 38.5 pts |
| Kootenay-Rockies | Conservative Party | 39.8 pts |
| Prince George-Mackenzie | Conservative Party | 40.8 pts |
| Vancouver-Strathcona | BC NDP | 44.6 pts |
| Cariboo-Chilcotin | Conservative Party | 46.4 pts |
| Nechako Lakes | Conservative Party | 52.6 pts |
| Peace River North | Conservative Party | 57.5 pts |
| Prince George-North Cariboo | Conservative Party | 60.4 pts |
| Peace River South | Conservative Party | 98.3 pts |
How to read the data
- Live
- Unofficial counts arriving now.
- Official preliminary
- Accepted official preliminary counts, subject to verification and final count.
- Projection
- Model output, not an election result.
- Simulated
- A rehearsal or what-if scenario, not a result.
- Archived
- Saved past results; the original source status still applies. Archived does not mean certified.